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Publication Date: |
01-2016 |
| Authors: |
Campbell, A. Andrew Cheng, PhD. |
Campbell, A., & Cheng, A. (2016) Uncertainty Analysis for Calculating Reverse Thrust using In Situ Data, AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technologies Conference
Abstract
Runway excursions, abnormal runway contact, and runway undershoot/overshoot are the third leading category of fatal commercial aviation accidents. One contributing factor is the lack of timely objective and accurate assessments of runway conditions. Feasible methods of using onboard aircraft data to achieve a timely reporting of the available runway friction have been sought to improve real-time assessment of runway conditions. Though the aircraft braking capability is an essential element for the runway condition assessement, it is not directly measured. Critical forces acting on the aircraft during the landing rollout must be properly measured or estimated to enable the airplane-based reporting approach. The uncertainty of each force calculation will determine the validity of such approach. In this study, we demonstrated a process to determine the uncertainty in the calculation of reverse thrust using in situ data. The analysis was performed on a reverser thrust model that uses a control volume analysis and engine station pressure and temperature ratios to calculate reverse thrust. The model was verified and validated using data collected by the FAA’s Global 5000 aircraft. A sensitivity analysis was performed using a response surface methodology to determine the most critical factors in the analysis. Then a Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine the uncertainty in the response. The analysis found that the uncertainty in the model input variables translates to an uncertainty of ±10% for the reverse thrust calculation.
