Abstract

A category combining runway excursion, abnormal runway contact, and runway undershoot/overshoot was the third leading cause of fatal commercial aviation accidents worldwide between 2005 and 2014, according to a study by Boeing [1]. A lack of timely and accurate information, regarding runway conditions, has been identified as a significant contributing factor. Since aircraft braking capability is not directly recorded in the current setting, a novel approach of using airplane data to identify real-time runway conditions is currently being evaluated. The airplane-based assessment relies on estimating the deceleration forces acting on the aircraft during the landing roll-out to deduce the runway friction coefficient. The accuracy of the airplane-based runway condition reporting is consequently dictated by the uncertainty associated with the calculation of the deceleration forces. This paper presents a methodology for defining acceptable uncertainty limits for the calculated forces based on the granularity of the friction reporting system, force estimation bias, and desired confidence level for the friction estimation. The methodology will then be demonstrated by evaluating the ability of a landing performance model for the Global 5000 aircraft to meet the prescribed uncertainty limits.